RBI's Monetary Policy Committee Weighs First Rate Hike Since 2023: Inflation, Crude and Global Rates Narrow the Room

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets from 5 to 7 October 2026, and most analysts expect it to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on 7 October — the first increase since February 2023 — after nearly two years of monetary accommodation, The Indian Express reported on 5 October 2026. Rising retail inflation, crude oil above $100 a barrel and higher global interest rates are cited as the forces narrowing the RBI's room to wait.